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Statewide Analysis - Dennis Winters, Chief Economist

More of the Same?
September 16, 2008

Yes and no. Spoken like a true economist. Let’s review the recent history. U.S. GDP was revised going back six quarters and second quarter 2008 preliminary numbers were released at the end of August. In the revision, fourth quarter 2007 was marked down to a negative 0.2% (first negative quarter in six years). Second quarter 2008 registered a positive 3.3%. The jump in second quarter GDP is attributed to the stimulus package rebate checks, narrower trade deficit, and higher exports. Exports contributed the vast bulk of the growth. Real exports of goods and services increased 13.2% in the second quarter.

Jobs numbers are falling at a measured pace and unemployment rates are rising along with unemployment insurance claims, although not at the sharp rates usually associated with a bona fide recession. Industrial production and the manufacturers and non-manufacturers indexes are wandering back and forth around neutral. Financial and credit markets are still staring into the headlights. The housing market is still in the doldrums. Real residential fixed investment decreased 15.7% in the second quarter, housing inventories are at eleven months (5 months is desired), sales are down, and prices are at best slightly positive in some locales.

So what should we expect in the next few quarters? Let take each item going from back to front. The prospects for the housing market remain bleak. Not only are houses not selling, they continue to fall in price, further sapping incentive to honor mortgage commitments and pinching the cash flows that support the downstream investment bets. Mortgage credit standards have tightened, shutting out some prospective buyers. The Treasury takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will do little besides shove another several billion dollars of liquidity into the market, hoping to buy enough time for the housing/mortgage/credit markets to work out of the funk. More financial institutions will be scavenging for white knights to rescue them from bankruptcy or total liquidation. Some won’t make it.

The bulk of U.S. goods and services have been supported by foreign demand. First-half 2008 U.S. exports were up 18% versus year-ago. Wisconsin exports were up almost 14%, led by machinery, electrical machinery, and medical devices. With the European economies weakening and the dollar strengthening, exports are likely to diminish, eliminating one of the two remaining legs supporting a wobbly economic stool. Lower export production will displace more workers. Unemployment claims and rates should continue to rise. Continued unemployment insurance claims have ratcheted up to 2003 levels, the most recent highs coming out of the last recession. Wisconsin’s unadjusted unemployment rate for August was a curiously low 4.7 percent.

The remaining leg of the economic stool is consumer spending. The stimulus package checks gave a shot in the arm to consumer budgets. However, higher gasoline and food prices absorbed much of the cash flow. Noteworthy is the spending patterns following the stimulus checks. Discounters benefited (Walmart and Costco). Electronics sales increased (computers and big screen TVs). There were some savings and debt reduction as well. The stimulus checks have now come and gone as have retailers’ spirits, who yet dream of a plum holiday sales burst even though consumers have less home equity to tap and shaky job expectations to supply much seasonal shopping cheer.

GDP expectations for the next four quarters are not glowing. Projections are for a slow third quarter, slower fourth and first quarters, with hope for some growth in the second quarter of 2009. However, if the housing market hasn’t bottomed out by then (housing is subtracting a percentage point from GDP; if housing would just stop falling, GDP would get a boost), and the credit markets aren’t showing any light at the end of the tunnel, the economic lethargy could be protracted.

Inflation, running at nearly 5%, is expected to tame, although gasoline and food prices are not expected to drop substantially. The trick with inflation is that even if oil and food prices stay at high levels for a prolonged period, the high but constant prices no longer push inflation rates up. The higher costs do, however, impact consumer budgets and spending patterns. Still, if the inflation numbers drop, the Fed may lower interest rates to try to jump start the economy. As of this writing, the Fed decided to leave fed funds rates unchanged at 2 percent.

So, more of the same, yes and no.
 

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Bay Area Analysis - Kimberly Berg, Labor Market Analyst

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, Bureau of Workforce Training in June 2008 released 2007 average annual employment and wage data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). QCEW collects employment and wage information for workers covered by Wisconsin Unemployment Insurance laws and for federal workers.

In the year 2007, employers in Wisconsin's Bay Area Workforce Development Area (WDA) reported an average of 312,692 jobs. The Bay Area consists of ten counties which include Brown, Door, Florence, Kewaunee, Manitowoc, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto, Shawano, and Sheboygan counties. The number of jobs in the Bay Area increased by 4.7 percent over a five year period (2002 to 2007), faster growth than in the state (+3.3%). Florence and Oconto counties each saw a reduction in the number of jobs since 2002. Total employment in Kewaunee County, on the other hand, grew by 10.1 percent over the five year period. Nine of the twelve industry super-sectors added jobs since 2002 in Kewaunee County. In particular, natural resources and mining (+ 47.6%) and professional and business services (+ 44.8%) were the fastest growing super-sectors in the county. Only the construction industry saw a decline in the number of jobs over the five years.

Total payroll in Wisconsin (+21.2%) grew at a swifter pace than wages did in the Bay Area (+20.8%) between 2002 and 2007. Kewaunee County was only one of two counties in the Bay Area that displayed faster five year growth in total wages than the state. One explanation for such fast growth in total payroll in the county is due to employment growth in high-wage jobs in the utilities sector. Florence County was the only county in the Bay Area that saw a decline in total payroll coupled with a decline in employment. However, this does not mean that all existing jobs across all industries in the county did not see growth in average wages. In fact, the average annual wage in Florence County grew by seven percent between 2002 and 2007.

Among the Bay Area's counties, only Brown County reported an average annual wage ($38,663) higher than Wisconsin's average annual wage ($38,070) in 2007. Job totals, industry mixes and occupational compositions are greater in the more metropolitan areas, such as Brown and Sheboygan counties. As a result, these areas will typically see higher average annual wages. Florence and Shawano counties, on the other hand, are more rural areas that have fewer jobs and thus typically report lower average annual wages as displayed in the graph above.

Additional information on jobs and wages for the state's 72 counties is available at http://worknet.wisconsin.gov/worknet/.

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Fox Valley Analysis - Kimberly Berg, Labor Market Analyst

The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development, Bureau of Workforce Training in June 2008 released 2007 average annual employment and wage data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW). QCEW collects employment and wage information for workers covered by Wisconsin Unemployment Insurance laws and for federal workers.

There was an average of 288,191 jobs reported in the Fox Valley Workforce Development Area (WDA) in the year 2007. The Fox Valley consists of seven counties which include Calumet, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Outagamie, Waupaca, Waushara, and Winnebago counties. The number of jobs in the Fox Valley increased by 3.2 percent between 2002 and 2007, a slower growth rate than in Wisconsin (+3.3%). Fond du Lac and Green Lake counties each saw a reduction in the number of jobs over the five year period, -1,273 and -49, respectively. Employment in Outagamie County grew the fastest between 2002 and 2007 (+8.3%) within the Fox Valley. Among the industry super-sectors in the county, only natural resources and mining (- 85 jobs), and trade, transportation, and utilities (- 528 jobs) saw declines in total employment between 2002 and 2007; eight industry super-sectors in Outagamie County reported positive growth over the five year period.

Like employment gains, growth in total wages between 2002 and 2007 was faster in Wisconsin (+21.2%) than in the Fox Valley (+20.4%). Although Fond du Lac and Green Lake counties saw declines in employment over the five year period, the two counties saw a different picture in total wage growth between 2002 and 2007, +13.2 percent and +19.6 percent, respectively. Within the two counties combined, nine out of the eleven industry super-sectors that eliminated jobs still showed growth in total payroll. For example, employment in education and health services in Green Lake County decline by two percent while total payroll grew by 17.3 percent between 2002 and 2007; this suggests that there was an increase in wages in the jobs that were not eliminated which made up for the loss in wages of the eliminated positions. In addition, all the industry super-sectors that did not see a decline in jobs in Fond du Lac and Green Lake counties, saw an increase in total wages within each respective industry sector. This resulted in positive increases in the all industry total payroll between 2002 and 2007 in both counties.

Winnebago County is the only county in the Fox Valley that reported an average annual wage ($40,957) in 2007 that was higher than in the state ($38,070). Outagamie and Winnebago counties are among the more metropolitan areas in the Fox Valley. Job totals, industry mixes and occupational compositions are greater in these areas and thus will typically see higher average annual wages. The more rural areas such as Green Lake and Waushara counties will report lower average annual wages because job totals, industry mixes and occupational compositions are different.

Additional information on jobs and wages for the state's 72 counties is available at http://worknet.wisconsin.gov/worknet/.

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Milwaukee/WOW Analysis - Betsy Falk, Economist

Total Personal Income (TPI) for Milwaukee did not increase as much as either the state or nation during the prior one and five year periods. With an increase of 5.2 percent during the 2005 to 2006 time period, Milwaukee lags behind the state's 5.4 percent and the nation's 6.7 percent increase. TPI over the past 5 years has Milwaukee with a 15.6 percent increase, the state at 20.7 and the United States at 25.8 percent. Milwaukee's Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) increased by 4.9 percent over the one year period. This is slightly more than Wisconsin's 4.8 percent increase but less than the United States' increase of 5.6 percent. Milwaukee's five year PCPI increase of 13.6 percent lagged behind the state's 17.0 percent and the nation's 20.1 percent increase.

The employment picture for Milwaukee WDA shows both bad and good news. While the area lost 28,501 jobs during the five year period from 2001 to 2006, during the one year period from 2005 to 2006, Milwaukee added 2,691 jobs. While the loss of jobs is significant, the increase in employment over the one year period is encouraging. The industries shedding the most jobs were manufacturing with 17,346 less jobs in 2006 than 2001. Trade, Transportation and Utilities totaled 11,046 less in 2006 than 2001.

The 3 counties making up the WOW Workforce Development Area, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha, showed very strong growth in both Total Personal Income (TPI) and Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) for the past year. From 2005 to 2006, TPI increase by 7.4 percent, .7 percent higher that the US and 2.9 percent higher than Wisconsin. Following a similar trend, PCPI was 1.3 percent higher that the US and 2.1 percent higher than Wisconsin.

The March 2008 unemployment rate for Milwaukee/WOW is between the state and nation. At 5.4 percent, the rate is .2 percent lower than Wisconsin and .2 percent higher than the United State. All three reporting entities show similar trends with the highest unemployment rate in February and the lowest rate in October.

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North Central Analysis - Bill Brockmiller, Labor Market Analyst

The industrial landscape contained in the North Central region is as varied as any in the state, with a wider spectrum, than the commercial terrain of many other Wisconsin communities. This is one of the strengths of North Central's economy, and the growth in several key sectors is at least a qualified assurance of future stability.

Nevertheless, one of the cornerstones of the North Central economy is currently sailing through a hail storm. Papermaking, one of the two signature sectors in the area (the other – healthcare) has been bleeding employment and market share for several years now. This blood letting has intensified over the course of the last twelve months.

It, in fact, is the principle reason for the current downturn in the area's economy report. When comparing June 2008 numbers to the same month in the previous year, one is immediately struck by the loss of over 1,100 jobs in manufacturing. Another 1,100 plus loss is reported in construction employment, due in part to the trickle down effects of the national housing and finance crisis. Trade employment is down over 500 from a year ago; unquestionably ramped up inflation, housing troubles, and layoffs in the two aforementioned sectors are contributing to the drop in trade employment.

Although there are not up-to-the-minute numbers available for what’s happening to household incomes, one can surmise that those incomes are falling in many parts of the region, as construction and manufacturing are two of the best paying sectors in the region.

Economic conditions have slipped down a notch in several North Central counties, including the largest county, Marathon. While the unemployment rate is flat compared to last year, the only reason it hasn't increased is because of a shrinking labor force in Marathon. The number of workers discouraged by labor market conditions and thereby removing themselves from the work pool is on the rise. How much this phenomenon accounts for the almost 1,100 person drop in the labor force is not certain, but what is certain is that discouraged workers ("giving-up") are a contributing factor. Every month of 2008 thus far (January – June) has reported a lower total employment count than found in the same month in 2007 in Marathon County. June 2008 is down almost 1,000 workers as compared to June 2007.

On the other hand, it's the diversity of the area’s economy that is saving it from a far worse outcome. Health care employment is up over 1,600 from a year ago; and a welcome increase in leisure and hospitality employment is also noted. (up 1,500+) Region-wide employment is up by a little more than 2,200 over the year, and the unemployment rate is down by 0.1 of a percentage point.

Recently released estimates of 2006 personal income indicate that Total personal income (TPI) in the North Central region of $12,970,698,000 is 6.8 percent of Wisconsin’s TPI and increased only 4.9 percent in 2006, slower than the increase of 5.4 percent in the state and 6.7 percent in the nation.

Within the nine-county region Marathon County had the highest total personal income (TPI) in the area, at over four billion dollars; do in part to the fact that Wausau is the largest population center in North Central. However, the fastest growing TPI in the area belonged to Vilas County, owing to the trend of retirees moving to Wisconsin's picturesque bucolic counties. Vilas' TPI grew by 26 percent since 2001. Lincoln County saw the slowest growth in North Central, at 17.8 percent.

Total personal income includes income from three main sources: net earnings; dividends, interest and rent; and transfer receipts. Net earnings make up the majority of income, with the remaining percentage divided between the other two components. The exact distribution help analyze a given area.

Amongst North Central counties, net earnings made up the highest proportion of TPI in Marathon County, with its relatively large concentration of employers. Not surprisingly, the lowest share of income from net earnings was found in Vilas County, since retirees earn the majority of their income from sources other than wages. Net earnings made up only 48 percent of income in Vilas County, the lowest share in the state.

(Note: TPI estimates are for 2006, the most recent year available. This TPI data was released in May of 2008 and this analysis was written in August of 2008.)

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Northwest Analysis - Scott Hodek, Economist

The temperatures are climbing and workers in Northwest Wisconsin are shedding their cold-weather garb to return to jobs suspended during the winter months or to seek out new jobs that are added every year in April, May and June by the employers in this ten-county region. Even in the “tough” years employers add workers to get on with the business of new construction and reconstruction, providing leisure activities and hospitality to both residents and non-residents, and accommodating the many tourists and seasonal residents who visit the area's lakes, parks, and golf courses.

Every year from April to June, employers in Northwest Wisconsin add thousands of workers to their payrolls. The average increase during this three-month period over the last five years was 4,450 jobs – 2007 witnessed the smallest increase in 15 years with the addition of only 4,000 jobs. Unmistakably, most of the jobs are added by employers in leisure and hospitality businesses which is followed closely by an increase in jobs with construction employers. Will the April to June pattern be repeated in 2008? Probably. Even though construction jobs might not reach the same levels as in years past, leisure and hospitality employers are gearing up for a year that could see tourist traffic increase especially from Midwest metropolitan areas and Canada as high gas prices keep vacationers closer to home.

The increase in jobs every spring is important to workers in the region and the wages earned by those workers who live in one of the ten counties of Northwest Wisconsin are significant to the region's overall economy. Unfortunately, the seasonal or temporary nature of those jobs and that many are in the leisure and hospitality industry, an industry that pays, on average lower wages, is one reason why the area's per capita personal income ranks the lowest of the eleven workforce development areas in Wisconsin.

Total personal income (TPI) in the northwest region of $4,711,253,000 is less than three percent of Wisconsin's TPI and increased only 3.7 percent in 2006, slower than the increase of 5.4 percent in the state and 6.7 percent in the nation. Net earnings from the region's workers comprise 59 percent of TPI, roughly nine percentage points lower than the proportion in either the state or nation. Per capita personal income, the result of dividing TPI by the area's population, increased 4.1 percent in 2006 also slower than state and national increases of 4.8 and 5.6 percent, respectively. The 2006 PCPI in the northwest region of $26,127 was 76 percent of Wisconsin's PCPI of $34,405 and 71 percent of the United State's PCPI of $36,714. Constraining PCPI growth in the northwest area is its large share of elderly, primarily living on fixed incomes; a shortage of highly-skilled and high-paying, technical and professional jobs; and wages that consistently fall short of state and national wages. In 2006, the annual average wage for a worker in Northwest Wisconsin was only 75 percent of the annual average in the state.

Within the ten-county region, Price County had the highest per capita personal income at $28,160 which ranked 40th highest among the state's 72 counties, while Rusk County, with a PCPI of $22,349, ranked 71st.
Additional information on total personal income and per capita personal income for the state's 72 counties, 13 metropolitan areas, and 11 workforce development areas is available on the Office of Economic Advisors web site at: http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea/per_capita_personal_income/pcpi.htm

For all local area personal income tables published on April 25, 2008 by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (US Dept. of Commerce) follow the instructions at this link:

http://www.bea.gov/regional/index.htm#state

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Southwest Analysis - Dan Barroilhet, Economist

In June of 2008, the Department of Workforce Development's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages released new figures. Among Southwest Wisconsin's counties, none reported an average wage as high as the statewide average wage in 2007 ($38,070). With the highest concentration of residents and jobs, Rock County continues to report a higher average wage than other counties in Southwest Wisconsin, while the more sparsely populated counties with lower total employment reported lower average wages.

In terms of increasing job numbers from 2002 to 2007, the pace was quickest in Green (8.0%) and Lafayette (8.4%) counties. Job gains were concentrated in Green County's professional and business services sector and manufacturing sector. Meanwhile, the education and services sector and the other services sector dominated Lafayette County's job growth. Iowa County's retail trade sector shed 791 jobs during this time. This was enough to counteract all numerical job gains in other sectors and pull the county's overall (all-industries) figure into negative territory. In Grant County, a 19.1 percent drop in manufacturing employment was accompanied by a 32.4 percent increase in average manufacturing wages, so most of the jobs lost probably were not among the industry's highest-paid.

Comparing average wages in 2002 and 2007, four counties saw faster growth than high-wage Rock County (12.0%). Over that time period, wage growth in Grant (23.0%) and Richland (23.2%) counties exceeded the statewide rate (17.4%). Much of the decrease in Iowa County's average wage relates to total retail trade wages falling from $233 million in 2002 to $163 million in 2007. When the rate of job loss (-12.5%) in retail trade is exceeded by the rate of total wage decline in retail trade (-30.1%), the data suggests that many of the jobs lost were among the retail trade sector's higher-paying Iowa County jobs.

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South Central Analysis - Dan Barroilhet, Economist

In June of 2008, the Department of Workforce Development's Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages released new figures. Dane County was the only South Central Wisconsin county to report an average wage ($42,238) higher than the statewide average wage in 2007 ($38,070). Population density, job density, and commuting patterns influence each county's wage trends to different degrees.

In terms of increasing job numbers from 2002 to 2007, the pace was quickest in Sauk (9.9%) and Dane (7.6%) counties. Sauk County employers reported 3,332 more jobs in 2007 than in 2002 and 1,616 of them were in the public administration sector. Most of this gain in public administration employment is probably the result of a change in reporting rather than a change in actual employment. A prominent employer used to report all of its Sauk County employment elsewhere and it began reporting Sauk County jobs as Sauk County jobs. Dane County overcame decreases in public administration employment with significant increases in education and health services and in professional and business services. Job losses in food manufacturing and in nursing and residential care facilities were significant factors restraining Jefferson County's job growth.

Comparing average wages in 2002 and 2007, Columbia County had the fastest growth. Over that time period, Columbia County's manufacturing sector did two striking things. It shed 111 jobs, which is more jobs than any other sector shed in Columbia County. It also added $41 million to its total payroll, which is $15 larger than the next-largest payroll gain (education and health services). Between 2002 and 2007, Marquette County's highest-wage sector, construction ($37,080) lost 76 jobs, which was the largest numerical employment change of any sector. Two other sectors with large numerical employment changes were Leisure and Hospitality ($9,058) and professional and business services ($21,615). When job growth occurring in sectors that do not pay especially high wages in Marquette County, the county's average wage growth will have difficulty reaching its most robust potential.

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Southeast Analysis - Betsy Falk, Economist

Southeastern Wisconsin contains Kenosha, Racine and Walworth counties. The changes in Total Personal Income (TPI) and Per Capita Personal Income (PCPI) show variations between the one and five year time periods, and when compared to Wisconsin and the United States. At 5.9 percent, the one year TPI change is higher than Wisconsin's 4.5 percent increase but less than the United States' 6.7 percent increase. The five year change of 20.7 percent is the same as Wisconsin's but almost 5 percent less than the United States. The one year PCPI changes follow the same pattern as TPI with the Southeast region showing a higher percent increase than the State but lower than the nation as a whole. Over the five year PCPI period, Southeast Wisconsin's rate of change was less than either the state or nation.

Over the past five years, employment in Racine County increased by 5,409. This number has been modified by the decrease of 356 jobs during the past year. Industries most affected by this employment change are manufacturing, professional and education. Manufacturing saw a decrease of 6,211 jobs during the period which resulted in a decrease of 4.5 percent of total employment. Professional & Business Services gained 2,653 new positions while Education and Health Services added 3,378.

Southeast Wisconsin's March 2008 unemployment rate is slightly higher than either the state or the nation. At 6.1 percent, Southeast Wisconsin's rate is .5 percent higher that Wisconsin and .9 percent higher than the United States. All three reporting entities show similar trends with the highest unemployment rate in February and the lowest rate in October.

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West Central Analysis - Scott Hodek, Economist

The federal Bureau of Economic Analysis has recently released 2006 estimates of personal income at the county and metro level, revealing a wealth of information about West Central Wisconsin. Eau Claire County still has the highest total personal income (TPI) in the area, at over three billion dollars - Eau Claire is also the largest population center in West Central. However, St. Croix County is narrowing the gap, at about $2.7 billion in 2006. St. Croix had the fastest growing TPI in the area, with a five year growth rate of 33 percent. Barron and Clark counties saw the slowest growth, at around 14 percent.

Total personal income includes income from three main sources: net earnings; dividends, interest and rent; and transfer receipts. Net earnings make up the vast majority of income, with the remaining percentage divided between the other two components. However, despite this common pattern, the exact distribution can tell us a lot about an area.

Not surprisingly, among the West Central counties, net earnings made up the highest proportion of TPI in St. Croix. Seventy-seven percent of St. Croix's TPI was made up of net earnings, reflecting the higher wages earned by the small army of commuters who cross the border to work in the Twin Cities metro area. Another Minnesota-border county came in second – 73 percent of Pierce County's TPI was composed of net earnings. We can see the effects of the border counties' proximity to the Twin Cities metro in the adjustment for residency, an adjustment to net earnings taken to allocate income to the correct county of residence, rather than the county where the place of work is located. This adjustment made up over 45 percent of St. Croix's net earnings – almost half of St. Croix's total net earnings were made outside the county. Pierce's adjustment was even higher, at over 55 percent! St. Croix also had the fastest growth in net earnings, up 33 percent since 2001. The lowest growth in net earnings was seen in Barron County, a five year growth rate of only 14 percent.

Another useful component to analyze is transfer receipts. Transfer receipts refer to benefits like Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, unemployment insurance, disability payments, and welfare. About 21 percent of TPI in Clark County is from transfer receipts, the highest in West Central Wisconsin. While a high share of income made up of transfer receipts can indicate an older population, in Clark its share serves more to illustrate how low earnings are in the county, which increases the percentage of total income made up by other sources.

TPI is heavily influenced by an area's population, since more people generally leads to a higher TPI. Dividing TPI by a region's population gives us per capita personal income (PCPI), a measure of income per resident, and a more useful tool for comparing regions. St. Croix County had the highest PCPI in West Central Wisconsin, at $34,319. St. Croix's PCPI ranked 12th highest out of the state's 72 counties, again attesting to the higher wages earned by commuters into the Twin Cities. For comparison, the average PCPI in Wisconsin was $34,405 in 2006, while PCPI in the Twin Cities metropolitan area was $44,237. However, St. Croix did not have the fastest PCPI growth in 2006. Eau Claire's PCPI grew at 5.2 percent, faster than the statewide average of 4.8 percent, and ranking its growth rate at 17th among the state's 72 counties. The lowest PCPI in West Central was found in the very rural Clark County, ranked 66th in the state, at $24,376.

The Eau Claire Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), consisting of Eau Claire and Chippewa Counties, had a PCPI of $29,837, lowest of the twelve MSAs primarily located in Wisconsin. Though lower wages play a role in Eau Claire's low PCPI, having the University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire located in the metro also has a major effect on PCPI. Of the students that do work, many only work part-time, often in low paying jobs. But regardless of that fact, they are still included in the total population, used as the denominator in determining in PCPI. This contributes to a lower per capita income, which can be misleading when assessing income in an area. The Eau Claire MSA's PCPI growth rate from 2005 to 2006 was 4.6 percent, ranked seventh out of the state's twelve main MSAs.

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Western Analysis - Bill Brockmiller, Labor Market Analyst

The QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) for 2007 was recently made available to the public. Using quarterly data submitted by state agencies, the Bureau of Labor Statistics summarizes employment and wage data for workers covered by State unemployment insurance (UI) and Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) to compile the QCEW reports. QCEW captures and reports on the substantial majority of employment in a given geographic area. Employment counts are available by industry group for the State and all Counties. Analysis of this data is very useful in the examination of employment and wage developments; as well as industrial requirements and trends in a given geographic area. In the past, the QCEW has been known as CEW; and it’s sometimes known as ES-202 data.

In the graph below one will find the average annual wage in 2007 for the eight counties contained in Western Wisconsin, as well as the statewide average. Buffalo County had the highest average annual wage in Western in 2007; at $36,654 its average annual wage was 96 percent of the statewide total of $38,070. Second highest was Western’s only metropolitan county, La Crosse, with an average annual wage of $33,523 – 88 percent of the statewide average. Annual average wages in Crawford of $25,664 were the lowest in the Western region in 2007; Vernon’s wages of $26,567 were a close second for lowest annual average wage in Western Wisconsin.

Next, taking a look at the industrial make-up of the eight Western Wisconsin counties, one can find some reasons for the varying average annual wages in the area.

Buffalo County highest annual average wage is clearly maintained by the higher paying jobs in trucking & transportation, a component sector of the trade, transportation & utilities industrial sector. Almost 50 percent of wage and salary jobs in Buffalo County are in the trucking & transportation industry. La Crosse County’s second highest average annual wage is, in part, the result of the cornerstone of La Crosse’s economic strength; the still booming health care industry.

Crawford County’s relative strength in leisure & hospitality, and retail trade (component sector of the trade, transportation & utilities sector) place Crawford lowest of the eight counties in terms of average annual wage. Wages in these sectors are often lower and many of the jobs are part-time or seasonal.

(Note: QCEW estimates are for 2007, the most recent full year available. This QCEW data was released in June of 2008 and this analysis was written in August of 2008.)

 

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