Q&A about Wisconsin’s Projections Program

What are projections?

Short-Term Projections use the most current employment data to estimate statewide industrial and occupational employment over a two-year period. For instance our latest projections use 2001 employment data to estimate employment in 2003.

Wisconsin also develops long-term projections. They are released every other year, projecting ten years out. The current round of long-term projections covers 2000-2010. They are viewable at this site: http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/lmi/projections.htm. However, for right now we will be focusing on the short-term projections.

You project both industrial and occupational employment. Why both? How do they differ?

An industry is a distinct group of businesses, and tells where a person is employed. An occupation describes the type of work a person does. Some occupations, such as general office clerks or accountants, are found in a wide variety of industries. Others, like stone masons or mail carriers, are found in only a few industries.

Why are the projections developed?

Our goal in developing projections is to predict trends in employment levels in Wisconsin’s industries and occupations. Educators and colleges use data from projections to determine which training paths to make available, and job counselors can utilize the data when helping a dislocated worker search for a job. We also publish a list of jobs expecting the most openings over the two-year period. Students and job seekers can use this data when choosing a course of study or career. Researchers, analysts, workforce development boards, and others use projections data to aid in their research and planning as well.

When will the next round of projections be available? What date will they project to?

We expect to have the next round of projections available in fall 2004. They will be using 2003 employment data, projecting to 2005. After that, we plan to update the short-term projections annually.

What data is used when creating projections?

To create our projections, we gather data from a wide variety of sources. We use industry employment data from Covered Employment and Wages (CEW, or ES-202) and Current Employment Statistics (CES). We obtain occupational information from the Occupational Employment Statistics/Wage (OES/Wage) survey. We also use information from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Current Population Survey (CPS), and a mix of state and national indicators.

In addition to the data, we also rely on expert and informed opinions on where Wisconsin’s industries are headed. We receive input from our regional analysts as well as from professionals from the business and educational sectors. We combine their input with our own knowledge of Wisconsin’s industries to produce the projections.

What steps are involved?

Our projections are done in two main segments. First, using historical data, economic indicators, and a variety of econometric models, we produce our industry projections. A panel of experts reviews these preliminary projections, and adjustments are made as necessary.

Once the industry projections are completed, we run the occupational projections. Here we use state industry staffing patterns from Occupational Employment Statistics as well as data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for self-employed and unpaid family workers. Other inputs such as change factors (these indicate whether an occupation is increasing, staying constant, or decreasing within the industry) and replacement rates (the rate at which jobs are created by workers permanently leaving the occupation), are also incorporated to produce our occupational projections.

Which occupations show the greatest demand?

Below is the list of occupations with the top ten expected job openings in 2003:

Occupation	Expected Openings
Cashiers	4,910
Combined Food Prep/Serving Workers	4,730
Retail Salespersons	4,560
Waiters/Waitresses	3,100
Registered Nurses	2,280
Stock Clerks/Order Fillers	1,900
Laborers/Freight/Stock/Material Movers, Hand	1,860
Janitors/Cleaners Except Maids/Housekeeping	1,500
Secondary School Teachers Except Special/Vocational Education	1,240
Counter Attendants Cafeteria/Concession/Coffee Shop	1,230

For more detailed information about these occupations and others, please visit our website at : http://dwd.wisconsin.gov/lmi/projections_st.htm. Industry projections are also available on this site.

Are there any publications on Projections?

Yes! We publish a brochure, Wisconsin Jobs 2003, which provides a quick glance of Wisconsin’s most in-demand occupations.

If you are interested in receiving hard copies of the brochure, please send your request to Victoria at Victoria.Udalova@dwd.wisconsin.gov

Your most up to date projections are for 2003! As we move into 2004, how does this information help me?

The employment trends we observed between 2001 and 2003 will, for the most part, continue into the next year or two. The occupations projected to have large numbers of openings in 2003 should continue to have multiple openings in 2004 and 2005. Likewise, the occupations with few openings in 2003 will likely continue to have few openings in 2004 and 2005

Written by Emily Camfield, Economist, Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors, December, 2003.