Wisconsin's population growth

Demographic trends drive the demand for goods and services and underpin the ability to attract workers and employers. The number of producers and consumers is one of the first pieces information needed for any plan of business or public service. This article examines basic elements of Wisconsin’s population growth.

Where the growth happens

The Wisconsin Department of Administration’s Demographic Services Center estimates that 5,490,718 people lived Wisconsin as of January 2003. This reflects an increase of 127,074 people over the 2000 Census. Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted for roughly 49,812 people, or 39 percent of the increase. Net migration (people moving in minus people moving out) contributed the other 77,202 people, or 61% of that increase.

Non-metropolitan Wisconsin enjoyed a faster rate of net migration, (2.02%) than metropolitan Wisconsin (1.16%). Nonetheless, metropolitan Wisconsin’s rate of natural increase (1.23%) was far enough ahead of non-metropolitan Wisconsin’s (0.29%), that metropolitan Wisconsin’s overall growth rate (2.39%) was slightly greater than non-metropolitan Wisconsin’s (2.32%). Of the state’s total natural increase (49,812 people), approximately 89.9 percent (44,766 people) were added to metropolitan areas. See graph that follows.

Metropolitan Wisconsin includes the counties of Brown, Calumet, Chippewa, Dane, Douglas, Eau Claire, Kenosha, La Crosse, Marathon, Milwaukee, Outagamie, Ozaukee, Pierce, Racine, Rock,. St. Croix, Sheboygan, Washington, Waukesha and Winneb ago.

Age demographics contribute to natural increase trends

Population projections for 2005 suggest that non-metropolitan Wisconsin will see about 15 percent of its population aged over 64 while Metropolitan Wisconsin will see 12 percent aged over 64. This suggests that metropolitan Wisconsin is younger. More striking still, is how much faster non-metropolitan Wisconsin is aging. Through 2030, metropolitan Wisconsin will see more residents turning 18 each year than turning 65 each year. (See graph below to left.) Non-metropolitan Wisconsin, in contrast, will see the number of people turning 65 outstrip the number of people turning 18 sometime between 2015 and 2020. (See graph below to right.)

Source: Wisconsin Department of Administration, Demographic Services Center and DWD, Office of Economic Advisors

In addition to hosting a younger population, metropolitan Wisconsin hosts women who have children later in life than their non-metropolitan counterparts. (See graph below to left.) While metropolitan females are more likely than non-metropolitan females to have children between the ages of 15 and 17, they are less likely to have children between the ages of 18 and 29 and more likely to have children between the ages of 30 and 39. This suggests that the metropolitan Wisconsin may be able to maintain its birth levels while non-metropolitan Wisconsin may soften somewhat, as it has since 1980. (See graph below to right.)

Source: Wisconsin Department of Health and Family Services and Department of Workforce

Net migration: Where did new Wisconsin residents come from and where did former Wisconsin residents go?

The 2000 Census asked people over age 5 where they had lived in 1995. This data offers some insight into where incoming residents came from and where departing residents went. The table below shows how many residents selected states gained from Wisconsin and how many residents they lost to Wisconsin

Migration Dynamics 1995-2000
State	Former Wisconsin residents moved to listed state	Former residents of listed state moved to Wisconsin	Net gain or loss of residents
Illinois	41,774	80,569	38,795
California	17,229	23,316	6,087
Michigan	16,968	19,785	2,817
Minnesota	51,512	51,692	180
Iowa	9,734	12,229	2,495
Indiana	8,466	9,402	939
New York	5,928	6,918	990
Pennsylvania	3,855	5,942	2,087
Ohio	7,702	7,628	-74
Washington	5,505	5,865	360

Source: Census 2000
http://www.census.gov/population/www/cen2000/phc-t22.html
http://www.census.gov/population/cen2000/phc-t22/tab03.pdf

Although commuting data is beyond the scope of this article, it is important to note that commuting patterns suggest that many people move to Wisconsin counties near the Chicago metropolitan area or the Minneapolis-St. Paul metropolitan area and continue to work in those areas. Net migration accounted for roughly half of the state’s population increase between 19990 and 2000.

What this means for the future

Migration trends rely on many factors that are hard to predict, such as changing tastes and comparative economic conditions. Future migration predictions are limited in their specificity.

Non-metropolitan Wisconsin will see a greater share of its population heading toward ages historically associated with retirement, and will see fewer youths coming down the pipeline to replace them. Some employers may have to step up recruitment and training efforts. Employers failing to address these issues may find it more difficult to keep up with competitors in more populated areas of Wisconsin, other states and other countries. Metropolitan Wisconsin’s urban hubs will see a smaller pool of inbound commuters from neighboring rural counties.

Written by Dan Barroilhet, Labor Market Economist, the Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors, February, 2004.