Wisconsin Projections 2000-2010: Employment in Industries and Occupations examines jobs in over 70 industries and 750 occupations. Although Wisconsin’s employment has declined the past two years, and there is still uncertainty surrounding the economy, the number of jobs in Wisconsin is expected to grow by 9.6% from 2000 to 2010. With nearly 300,000 new jobs anticipated, the total number of nonfarm jobs is projected to grow from 3.0 to 3.3 million.
A combination of weak domestic and global demand; mergers and consolidations; automation; globalization of operations; and uncertainty surrounding war have caused employment in Wisconsin’s manufacturing sector to shrink during the past few years. In 2000 manufacturing employment was 615,700 (using the SIC definition of manufacturing). In 2003 employment is projected to be 569,600. However, this sector is anticipated to gain back some of the jobs lost since 2000 and reach a level of 603,300 jobs by 2010.
The manufacturing industries projected to add the most jobs are lumber and wood products (2,780); furniture and fixtures (2,660), and food and kindred products (1,120). The manufacturing industries expected to lose the most jobs are industrial machinery and equipment (-5,300); primary metal (-2,900); and electronic and other electrical equipment (-2,600).
The services sector will be the job growth leader -- spurred on by the aging of Wisconsin’s population, technological innovations in health services and computer services, and continued outsourcing of business functions. With growth of 19% and the addition of over 186,000 positions, services employment is expected to reach a level of 1,154,000 jobs in 2010.
Over 70% of the new jobs in the services sector will be in health, business, educational, or social services. Health, business, educational, and social services will also be responsible for 45% of all new job creation in Wisconsin’s economy. (See figure ES-1.)
Source: information derived from 2001 OES/Wage Survey, 2000 ES-202 and 2000 CES (3/01 Benchmark) data. Unpublished data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Census Bureau was also used.
Another sector expected to add numerous jobs is retail trade. Between 2000 and 2010, this sector is projected to grow from 498,700 to 552,900 jobs. Eating and drinking places alone are expected to add 24,600 new jobs. By 2010, employment in this industry will reach a level of nearly 200,000. This increase is expected due to population and tourism growth, and to the likelihood that people will continue to prepare fewer meals at home.
Except for mining (which is expected to lose 250 jobs), the remaining industrial sectors are expected to add about 59,000 jobs during the 2000 to 2010 period. Agricultural services is projected to add 5,200 jobs; construction 11,700; transportation and public utilities 9,400; wholesale trade 9,900; finance, insurance, and real estate 12,800; and government (federal, state, local, and tribal) 10,000. Self-employed workers, who can be in any industry, are projected to grow by 3,100.
During the 2000 to 2010 period, Wisconsin is expected to have nearly 1,012,500 job openings for new entrants into the state’s occupations. About 289,800 of these openings will be newly created jobs. The remaining 722,700 openings will result from deaths, retirements, and other permanent exits from various occupations. Openings that result from people changing employers, but staying in the same occupation, are not included in the projections.
The five occupations expected to have the most job openings (see figure ES-2) are retail salespersons (42,900); cashiers (40,000); combined food preparation/serving workers (39,800); waiters/waitresses (28,400), and registered nurses (20,100). The number of job openings for registered nurses is linked to growth in Wisconsin’s senior population and to increasing demand for health services. Also, a large number of people are expected to leave the occupation of nursing either to retire or to move on to other careers. The number of openings in the other four occupations are connected both to growth expected in the retail trade and services sectors, as well as the tendency for most people to hold jobs in these occupations for a relatively short period of time.
The five occupations projected to lose the most jobs are cutting, punching, and press machine setters/operators/tenders (-2,300); insurance claims and policy processing clerks (-2,000); order clerks (-1,900); secretaries, except legal, medical, or executive (-1,800); and inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers (-1,600). The decline of insurance clerks is attributable both to computerization and to the movement of duties from these specialized clerks to more generalized office clerks. The decline of the four other occupations is linked to the decrease of employment in the manufacturing sector, as well as automation.
Source: Information derived from 2001 OES/Wage Survey, 2000 ES-202 and 2000 CES (3/01 Benchmark) data. Unpublished data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and US Census Bureau was also used.
Wisconsin Projections also includes information regarding the educational and training requirements typically required in each occupation. Typically required means the most common way people are expected to enter the occupation, although there may be other acceptable education and training. In order to fill all of the 1,012,500 job openings expected, Wisconsin will need people with a wide variety of skills, interests, and educational backgrounds.
Almost eight out of every ten openings (79%) will require less than a bachelor’s degree. Over half of the job openings (58%), will require short-term (less than a month) or moderate-term (one to twelve months) on-the-job training. Some examples of occupations in the these training categories are cashiers, retail salespersons, and highway maintenance workers.
About 7% of job openings typically require long-term on-the-job training. Long-term training takes more than a year and usually involves a combination of training at the job site and formal classroom instruction. Long-term on-the-job training is often accomplished through an adult apprenticeship program. Occupations in this training category include carpenters, electricians, and dental laboratory technicians.
Another 5% of openings usually require postsecondary vocational training. These formal training programs last from a few weeks to more than a year. Included in this category are cosmetologists, surgical technologists, and real estate assessors.
Work experience in a related occupation will be the general requirement in 5% of job openings. These jobs require skills and experience gained in related positions. Many of these jobs are first-line supervisory positions.
Three percent (3%) of the openings will require an associate degree. This degree requires two years of full-time academic work beyond high school. Examples of occupations requiring this degree are civil engineering technicians, paralegals, and dental hygienists.
The remaining 21% of the job openings will require four or more years of college, or a bachelor’s or higher degree in combination with work experience. Computer systems analysts, lawyers, physical therapists, and financial managers all fall into this group.
For more detailed projections information review the entire Projections 2000- 2010 publication on-line.
Written by Karin Wells, Economist, Department of Workforce Development, Office of Economic Advisors, December, 2003.